There should be no level of surprise when you realize that the permutations of personnel within a competitive team have a direct bearing on how the odds take shape. After all, the players are those that bring value to any team. Yes, there are cases when the structure and system are what put them in a position to succeed, but they still need to execute and prove their value either within or outside the script.
In this spirit, the assessment of value is something that creates a lot of discourse around the more passionate circles of sports fans. Player performance analytics (in football) come up with various scores and ratings that showcase that value and execution are two metrics that may or may not work in conjunction.
The same principles, be they via tape (the eye test/assessment) or via advanced metrics, are what drive the understanding of bookmakers when it comes to player performance and overall value. Given that these elements are assets that have an impact on a team’s structure and upside, you’ll quickly find that odds are very reflective of that.
In this article, we will explain the main modifiers that bookmakers account for when they set and modify their odds based on line-up elements.
How the optimization of line-ups works
In the context of sports performance, there are various ways in which we can interpret the idea of line-ups. Some are more verifiably effective than others, but each one has its own image in the eyes of those who actually care about such details:
- Collections of individual talents: you probably know of the dichotomy of hard work and talent, but the truth is that talent shakes the ground, while hard work is about consistency and stability. Athletes at the highest level generally represent both, but the level of talent can vary. Some line-ups are a collection of talents that may not have the best synergy or rapport, something that metrics and the eye test can see when it proves that there’s a lack of cohesion.
- Complementary teams with clear roles: on a field, hardwood, or any other type of place where the game actually happens, you see that each plays their part. When a line-up is complementary, there is less about personal heroics and more about following the structure and strengthening it with one’s individual contribution. As such, everyone’s abilities benefit from those around them, creating a machine that operates itself within a structure.
- Scrappy, attitude-driven squads: this can be about structure, but we can say that it’s mostly about discipline and the edge with which someone ought to play. These are the line-ups that operate as the very hard-nosed underdogs that are hard to beat because they cover eventual limitations of talent, hype, or pedigree. However, such line-up structures aren’t necessarily sustainable when it comes to their results. This is why they may show a low ceiling due to inconsistency and possible breakdowns. Playing hard can be strenuous.
The concept of squad depth has a direct effect on a bookmaker’s perspective
Now, when we’re talking about making something as simple as football predictions or as complicated as proposition betting odds, someone simply cannot look into the starting line-up and definitively say what’s likely to happen.
This is where squad depth becomes particularly important. Regardless of what happens, impactful changes can easily sway bookmakers.
They think of a team’s chances of succeeding despite some disruptions. If they happen in the build-up before the initial betting lines, the depth behind those who will not play will dictate how dramatic a change in odds can happen. Sometimes, these shifts can be a bit too dramatic based on reality, and you can swoop in and place a bet on very good odds.
If there is a last-minute change that happens right when the fixed betting line closes, it’s likely that the bookie has a knee-jerk reaction, especially if a crucial piece of the line-up goes down. A quarterback, a prolific striker, an amazing slugger, or a field general point guard are cornerstones.
Depending on the squad depth, that reaction can adopt various shapes and sizes when it comes to the impact on betting odds.
Elementary disruptions: injuries and suspensions
We wanted to take a brief moment to talk about the reality of what exactly changes when it comes to line-up movement. There are two major ones, as you see in the titles, but we wanted to add a third one because it’s a bit of an open detail if you really pay attention to the talking that is going on around a sport:
- Injuries: the unfortunate part of any sport. Some are freak accidents, others are impact-driven. Some are the cause of an unbecoming playing surface (the notorious turf) or faulty equipment, while others are the indirect result of a lack of preparation, be it because of the player or because of the training staff. An injury, especially a non-contact one, will always sway bookmakers toward changing the odds. The matter of depth is what modifies it.
- Suspensions: sometimes, discipline means taking measures, and racking up cards or committing a really reckless move can lead to a suspension. Any suspended player will have an impact on odds movement.
- Coaching/Managerial input: Sometimes, the manager/coach simply decides on a player over the other. Is that player a good/valuable/highly rated one, and they’re suddenly on the bench? Disciplinary actions might be the explanation, or it may be a personal conflict. These are signs of trouble, conflict, or even dysfunction. This is the type of signal that can easily sway oddsmakers.
Once there is recent performance data, changes have varying effects on odds
The matter of how exactly oddsmakers react to the aforementioned changes requires a good understanding of the situation. This means that they react based on what they can guess in an educated manner.
If there is recent performance data from the replacements from any given line-ups, the oddsmaker will have a better idea about what to expect. For example, sub-ins and rotational players that are showing good efficiency on a regular basis will alleviate the impact of the fact that they replace someone more valuable. As a result, their presence in a game may impact the odds in a less impactful way.
If the third-string player in a position gets in the game and must do things that nobody has seen them do in live action over the course of an extended amount of playtime, the odds will surely decrease for that team to win.
Real-time impact on oddmaking
The idea of impact oddsmaking is all about momentum in the context of live betting.
The simplicity of this act boils down to the fact that there will be cases in which a major shake-up in a line-up will be the type of impact move that will sway bettors very heavily towards wagering because of that.
A bookmaker can do many things in this context, but one of them is to move the odds directly in such a way that it does not impact it too much. The odds must be strategic, and line-ups will always prove a strategic part of the game that the market follows.
Conclusion
To conclude, the squad that you see on paper has as much of a bearing as the one you see on the field. It’s important to understand when these two start to go away from each other due to the obvious difference between theoretical value and sports reality. Given that this aspect requires quite a bit of attention, please remember to bet responsibly!
